Originally Published: December 12, 2023, 8:30 AM ET
Updated: December 12, 2023, 8:45 AM ET
The latest economic data on inflation is under scrutiny as analysts examine consumer prices and overall stability. Whether you’re trading penny stocks or higher-priced equities, economic data can have a ripple effect on the market in general. Recently released figures from November present a pivotal moment to gauge if rising costs are leveling off after a turbulent period. This next CPI inflation report for November is also expected to give some speculative sentiment on the future of potential rate cuts in 2024. Though down from record highs, inflation persists in generating financial burdens and uncertainty.
For months, elevated inflation had been squeezing household budgets across the nation. Prices for food, rent, medical care, and other critical expenses soared, outpacing wage growth. This led the Federal Reserve to take aggressive action, implementing a series of sizable interest rate hikes intended to cool demand. Now all eyes turn to the newest statistics for signs of respite.
Expert projections indicate consumer prices likely increased around 3.1% over the past 12 months – marking a slight decrease from October. This tempered rise offers a glimmer of hope that the most intense inflationary pressure may be easing. However, the broader economic terrain remains complex. Core inflation, which omits volatile food and energy costs, may tell a less optimistic story. It continues to hover at an elevated rate despite muted gains in other areas.
Navigating persistent inflation presents an ongoing challenge with nuance and uncertainty. For many households stretched thin by rising prices, even a subtle retreat feels tenuous and insufficient. Further Fed moves targeting inflation may risk recession as the dynamics between prices, wages, and stability hang in the balance. For now, cautious optimism mixed with weariness prevails. The path ahead promises to demand financial prudence and patience.
What is CPI Inflation Data?
The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, measures average prices of goods and services consumed by households. It tracks price changes, providing insights into inflation trends. This data helps economists and investors understand consumer purchasing power and make strategic decisions.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics explains it as“The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments).”
Think of the CPI as a snapshot of the economy. It reflects supply and demand dynamics, cost fluctuations, and consumer spending habits.
In 2023, amid global events, the CPI’s link to the stock market is crucial. It raises questions: Will inflation rise, driving interest rates up? Or, will it show signs of returning to normal levels?
Traders are monitoring the CPI to gauge the market’s direction in these volatile times. The CPI offers hints about future economic paths.
When Is the CPI Inflation Report Released?
The November CPI report is set for release at 8:30 am ET, today, December 12th.
CPI Report Today: November Inflation Expectations
CPI Inflation Data Expectations For November 2023:
- CPI Expectations (month-over-month): 0.0%, Previous read was 0.0%
- CPI Expectations (year-over-year): 3.1%, Previous read was 3.2%
- CORE CPI Expectations (month-over-month): 0.3%, Previous read was 0.2%
- CORE CPI Expectations (year-over-year): 4.0%, Previous read was 4.0%
The Consumer Price Index Report For November 2023 & CPI Numbers
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal
adjustment.
The index for shelter continued to rise in November, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index. The energy index fell 2.3 percent over the month as a 6.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than
offset increases in other energy component indexes. The food index increased 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, after rising 0.2 percent in October. Indexes which increased in November include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. The indexes for apparel, household furnishings and operations, communication, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.
The all items index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending November, a smaller increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, as it did for the 12 months ending October. The energy index
decreased 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending November, while the food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
November CPI Report Summary:
CPI Expectations (month-over-month): 0.0%
Actual CPI (month-over-month): 0.1% ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
CPI Expectations (year-over-year): 3.1%
Actual CPI (year-over-year): 3.1% IN LINE EXPECTATIONS
CORE CPI Expectations (month-over-month): 0.3%
Actual CORE CPI (month-over-month): 0.3% IN LINE EXPECTATIONS
CORE CPI Expectations (year-over-year): 4.0%
Actual CORE CPI Expectations (year-over-year): 4.0% IN LINE EXPECTATIONS
Novemebr CPI Inflation Data By The Numbers
November CPI For Food
The food index rose 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month, after rising 0.3 percent in October. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 0.5 percent in November after rising 0.2 percent in October. The fruits and vegetables index increased 0.3 percent over the month, and the nonalcoholic beverages index rose 0.5 percent in November. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.1 percent over the month.
November CPI For Energy
The energy index fell 2.3 percent in November after decreasing 2.5 percent in October. The gasoline index decreased 6.0 percent in November, following a 5.0-percent decrease in the previous month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 7.3 percent in November). The energy index fell 5.4 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index decreased 8.9 percent, the natural gas index declined 10.4 percent, and the fuel oil index fell 24.8 percent over this 12-month span. In contrast, the index for electricity rose 3.4 percent over the last year.
November CORE CPI Breakdown
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in November, after rising 0.2 percent in October. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent the previous month. The index for rent rose 0.5 percent in November, as did the index for owners’ equivalent rent. The lodging away from home index decreased 0.9 percent in November.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase in the all items less food and energy index. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+19.2 percent), recreation (+2.5 percent), personal care (+5.2 percent), and new vehicles (+1.3 percent).
Reaction In The Stock Market Today
Following the CPI inflation report for November, the overall markets traded slightly higher to the upside. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) jumped above $463 while the NASDAQ ETF (QQQ) jumped above $398. Major tech stocks, including Costco (COST) and Broadcom (AVGO), also climbed higher. The cautious optimism trickled its way into the meme stock category as well with shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) climbing back above $7.15 during premarket trading.
