Stock Market Prediction & Outlook For This Week: October 10, 2022, to October 14, 2022
If you’re trading penny stocks or higher-priced stocks, what happens in the stock market this week could dictate the pace of the rest of the year. Last week saw the stock market crash of 2022 continue as broader markets remained bearish.
Though we didn’t quite reach news lows like we did the prior week, heavy selling was evident, especially on Friday. Major indexes and corresponding ETFs fell hard. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY), Invesco Nasdaq (NASDAQ: QQQ), and SPDR Dow Jones (NYSEARCA: DIA) completely erased gains from earlier in the week.
Why was the stock market down last week? Economic data, including employment figures, stoked fears of more hawkish Fed actions at the November Fed meeting. Better-than-expected US employment data added to the argument that a tight labor market means the economy isn’t in a recession and that things are still “good” at the moment.
Economic Data Reignites Stock Market Crash & Recession Fears
Investors speculated that a Fed pivot was unlikely despite countless companies announcing layoffs. The initial thought of a “pivot” came after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rates by 25 bps. Since this was smaller than expected, onlookers grew bullish. The bank also explained that it had already raised rates substantially, though further tightening would still be needed.
Even the United Nations got in on the action. It warned that the world is on the verge of a recession that could hurt developing nations. According to the UN, that would be due to interest rate hikes in developed countries like the U.S.
“Interest rate hikes by advanced economies are hitting the most vulnerable hardest…Some 90 developing countries have seen their currencies weaken against the dollar this year.”
What To Watch In The Stock Market This Week
This is a massive week for economic events, and we’ll also see a more robust earnings schedule coming out. Pepsico (NASDAQ: PEP), Walgreens Boots (NASDAQ: WBA), and big banks including JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and others will kick things off.
Surely policymakers will be the highlight, and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes will pull away the curtain on everything Fed members discussed last month. This isn’t a complete list of all stock market events this week, but of the happenings during the next five days, these are some of the most prominent that could sway markets most:
Stock Market News & Events For Monday, 10/10
Monday eases in the week with commentary and minimal economic data. Chicago Fed President Evans will speak before the stocks market opens at 9:30 AM ET. Separately, the European Central Bank’s Lane speaks at 9 AM ET. Later in the session, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Brainard will speak. This could bring some volatility to the second half of the trading day on October 10th.
Stock Market News & Events For Tuesday, 10/11
Tuesday and Wednesday are when things begin to get busy. The ECB’s Lane speaks before the US markets open, followed by Fed speak throughout the mid-morning. FOMC members Harker and Mester speak as the lunch hour approaches. We’ll also see U.S. consumer inflation expectations, which may or may not weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, during the 2 o’clock hour, we get more policymakers speaking, including the ECB’s Lane, the Bank of England’s Governor Bailey, and MPC member Cunliffe.
Cunliffe, in particular, has also come into the spotlight for his discussions on cryptocurrency. The BOE Deputy Governor previously said that regulators should speed up efforts to create clear rules for crypto and that “the development of regulatory regimes helps, not hinders, innovation by reducing the risks of confidence destroying crashes and by giving innovators a framework within which to innovate.”
We’ll see if any comments are made regarding this stance and how it may impact cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks if there is mention of crypto policy.
Stock Market News & Events For Wednesday, 10/12
Wednesday will likely be a day that most will look at. That’s because at 2 PM ET, we’ll get the FOMC meeting minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting in September. If you recall, this meeting prompted traders to take a step back to reassess what some had hoped to be a turning point for the market. That wasn’t the case, and of the top 10 takeaways from the September Fed meeting and FOMC statement, many were hung up on Jerome Powel’s press conference.
In particular, when asked, “Do the odds favor a recession?” Powell said he doesn’t know the “odds of recession,” but there’s a very high likelihood that we’ll have below-trend growth. Surely, investors will look at the Fed meeting minutes to see if there were any stones left unturned and if the current rate stance is already baked into the latest downturn in the stock market or not.
Besides the FOMC minutes, we’ll see economic data from the UK, which reports GDP and Manufacturing production figures. US PPI data comes out before the market opens and could give way to speculation on economic conditions and whether Fed policy has begun working from the producer side of the economic equation. OPEC gives its monthly report, and we’ll get commentary from the Bank of England’s Pill, ECB President Lagarde, Fed Barr, and after the closing bell, FOMC member Bowman gives comments.
Stock Market News & Events For Thursday, 10/13
In the stock market on October 13th, things begin to slow but won’t take the foot off the gas by any stretch. While the German CPI for September is released, it will likely be the US September CPI, Core CPI, and jobless claims that are watched closely.
We’ll also see crude oil inventories, and later at night, China reports September PPI & CPI data. Regarding speakers, the Bank Of England’s Mann will deliver comments much earlier than the stock market’s opening bell.
Stock Market News & Events For Friday, 10/14
Friday’s economic data includes retail sales and import/export figures from September. We also get business inventories and Michigan consumer sentiment & inflation expectations. Fed Governor Cook will speak at 10:30 AM ET, and the Baker Hughes rig count could make for an exciting afternoon session for energy stocks.
BONUS: Stock Market News & Events For Saturday, 10/15
What’s the bonus for next week? While it isn’t an action-packed day, there are a few events to keep in mind that could set things up for the following week. In particular, The Bank Of England’s Governor Bailey will give remarks early Saturday morning at 9 AM ET. We’ll also get commentary from the FOMC when member Bullard speaks at 1:15 PM ET.
This Week’s Stock Market Snap Shot
This is a quick snapshot of what to watch in the stock market this week. These are a few catalysts that could sway sentiment and set the overall trends. Will the stock market crash continue, or will a bottom finally get put in? That’s the biggest question on the minds of investors and traders going into the next week of October 2022.
CPI Inflation Data and PPI Inflation Data are being released this week. Both are predicted to move the stock market. These inflationary reports will no doubt have been viewed as key indicators of whether or not the Fed continues an aggressive path or pivots. The ultimate goal is to avoid a recession & hopefully end the current stock market crash.
This week in the stock market, it’s perhaps best not to focus on which stocks to buy. Maybe it’s better not to rely too much on stock market predictions. Perhaps it is better to be reactive and prepared for whatever happens in the stock market this week.
The stock market crash was back in full swing after a short-term bounce in the stock market last week. Trading volatility is at an all-time high. Whether you’re into day trading, swing trading, options trading, long-term investing, futures trading, or crypto, it’s important to have a strategy.
How do you get started in the stock market? How do you make money in the stock market this week? Is this the best stock market for beginners? Find out LIVE when you tune in to True Trading Group’s Stock Market Live Stream tonight Sunday 10/9/2022 @ 8:30 pm ET on YouTube.